resume

This research was conducted as part of the final year of my Master’s degree. My thesis explores the concept of risk-taking in video games, using Escape From Tarkov as a case study. I focused on how the game's mechanics encourage players to make strategic, high-stakes decisions, and drew parallels between this behavior and risk dynamics found in gambling environments. The study investigates how emotional tension, loss aversion, and reward systems impact player engagement and decision-making.

project developed in 2022

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This thesis explores the concept of risk-taking in video games, using Escape From Tarkov as a central case study. The goal was to investigate whether the risk-reward mechanics found in this highly punitive shooter could be compared to behaviors observed in gambling scenarios.

Escape From Tarkov, developed by Battlestate Games, places the player in a high-stakes survival environment: each raid begins at a random position on the map, and any gear the player brings in can be permanently lost. The game’s steep learning curve, time investment, and pressure to secure loot push players to constantly assess whether the risk is worth the potential reward.

Structure of the Research

Part 1 – Understanding Risk in Games

The first part of the research focused on the definition and perception of risk in video game contexts. I examined how players evaluate risk based on reward potential, emotional stakes, and learned experience. This section also introduced two core psychological theories:

  • The Hot-Hand Fallacy – The belief that success increases the likelihood of future success, often leading to overconfidence.
  • Diamond Eyes Mentality – A behavior often observed in high-risk environments, where individuals cling to risky assets despite potential loss, driven by the hope of large rewards.

These theories helped establish a framework to analyze player behavior in uncertain or high-stakes situations.

Part 2 – Escape From Tarkov & Gambling Mechanics

The second part of the thesis examined the mechanics of Escape From Tarkov and drew parallels with gambling games such as Blackjack. Key points included:

  • The emotional weight of loss and how permanent failure mimics monetary loss in gambling.
  • The management of risk and timing, especially when extracting with valuable gear.
  • The impact of streaks and player superstition, which affect decision-making over multiple play sessions.

By comparing Tarkov’s systems with well-known gambling structures, this section highlighted how the game taps into psychological patterns associated with risk-based games of chance.

Part 3 – Linking Theory to Game Design Practice

In the final section, I connected the research findings to my own design experience, specifically my last-year Master project (Megacaisse). I analyzed how the game incorporated forms of risk — such as resource management, mechanical failure, and player-versus-environment pressure — and how these mirrored the same reward-driven tension found in Tarkov.

This reflection helped bridge the gap between theory and practice, showing how understanding risk perception can inform better game mechanics and player engagement strategies.

Academic References

  • Paul Williams, Keith V. Nesbitt, Ami Eidels, David ElliottBalancing Risk and Reward to Develop an Optimal Hot-Hand Game, Game Studies, 2011
  • Francine FerlandPerception et position des gains dans les jeux de hasard et d’argent, 1997
  • Frédéric Martinez & Valérie Le FlochLa connaissance du gain d’autrui. Une incitation au risque ?, HAL Archives Ouvertes, 2010

These sources offered insights into player motivation, decision-making bias, and the psychological traps of repeated success or observed rewards.